Projects
Projects: Projects for Investigator |
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| Reference Number | NIA_WWU_044 | |
| Title | Gas Demand Forecasting | |
| Status | Completed | |
| Energy Categories | Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy Models) 50%; Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis) 50%; |
|
| Research Types | Applied Research and Development 100% | |
| Science and Technology Fields | ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering) 100% | |
| UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation | Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Energy modelling) 50%; Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Other Systems Analysis) 50%; |
|
| Principal Investigator |
Project Contact No email address given Wales and West Utilities |
|
| Award Type | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Funding Source | Ofgem | |
| Start Date | 01 October 2017 | |
| End Date | 01 December 2017 | |
| Duration | ENA months | |
| Total Grant Value | £36,667 | |
| Industrial Sectors | Energy | |
| Region | Wales | |
| Programme | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Investigators | Principal Investigator | Project Contact , Wales and West Utilities (100.000%) |
| Web Site | https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA_WWU_044 |
|
| Objectives | The first stage will consist of a gap analysis, focusing on a number of gaps including those given as examples above. This gap analysis will address the following points for each of the gaps:1. Quantifying the impact of the gap on future gas demand – a high level sensitivity analysis will be carried out to understand if addressing a gap (i.e. adding new functionality to models, adding new technologies to models, refining the data inputs, etc.) significantly increases or decreases gas demand (annual and peak) in the future. This will be conducted through a number of simple quantitative calculation assessments, or where preferable, qualitative assessments for more process related issues.2. Identifying the likelihood of a gap actually occurring – some gaps are more likely to occur than others (e.g. hybrid heat pumps are likely to come to market in the next 5 years; but will we see significant uptake of CNG transport by 2050?)Key timeframes will be identified which need to be considered, then assess how the gaps are likely to link with these periods, and therefore which gaps are more likely than others to be realised. In the scoping study, those gaps that are more likely to occur, and that have a significant impact on future gas demand, should be prioritised.3. Effort required to plug gaps – for each of the gaps above, a very high level scope will be developed to provide the estimated effort required to address each gap in terms of developing new models or tools. Some gaps may be addressable in a few months, while others could take 1+ years to address. Understanding the effort required for each task will enable us to map out the gaps that should be prioritised in the shorter term versus longer term.4. Prioritisation of gaps / recommendations the outputs from tasks 1 – 3 of stage 1 will be mapped out to produce a prioritisation matrix. This will allow all the gaps to be compared using a number of simple metrics and prioritised. Location: All of WWU can be considered, one of the review areas is to consider whether sub-LDZ forecasting would provide additional value vs the additional effort / costA range of new customer types / behaviours to be considered including, power generation, CHP, industrial Review of existing UK future of gas scenarios and storage solutionsAssessment of existing as well as new/alternative WWU forecasting modelsReport on implications of findings, presentation and recommendation for future developments This project proposes to:Produce recommendations of loads by type, which have been deemed as having a material impact on future network design and operationProvide recommendations and a prioritisation matrix to inform the next stages of work in order that gaps for the highest impact site types are considered firstConsider whether the existing forecasting models at WWU should be combined and / or developed further or whether it is appropriate that they should be kept separate | |
| Abstract | Location: All of WWU can be considered, one of the review areas is to consider whether sub-LDZ forecasting would provide additional value vs the additional effort / costA range of new customer types / behaviours to be considered including, power generation, CHP, industrial Review of existing UK future of gas scenarios and storage solutionsAssessment of existing as well as new/alternative WWU forecasting modelsReport on implications of findings, presentation and recommendation for future developments | |
| Publications | (none) |
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| Final Report | (none) |
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| Added to Database | 09/11/22 | |
